Tuesday, September 3, 2013

Natural variability around a man-made warming trend


The average temperatures from all climate stations in Wyoming reveal the progressive upward march of the state's mean temperatures. Gray lines represent all of the overlapping data from the individual stations with a few representative records highlighted in orange (warmest two), blue (coldest two), and black.

Some years are warmer than average, and others cooler, but the random year to year changes, the annual role of the temperature dice, has shifted in favor of more warm years. At many locations, recent "cool" years would have been considered warm in the past, and we just do not experience the extreme cold any more.

Volcanic eruptions in the Tropics (triangles at the bottom a la NASA GISS) produce ash clouds that shade the Earth's atmosphere for several years. The striking cooling (blue bars) produced the only true cold years since 1980.

The graph shows how warming due to greenhouse gas emissions combines with other natural factors to create variation from year to year - even as the overall climate warms.

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